Mike and Mike Math Moment.
Mike and Mike this morning were talking about about the Yankees' situation this morning, and Mike Golic repeated the oft-cited, but wrong, assessment that teams in the Yankees' situation have "too many teams to climb over."
That matters in September. It doesn't matter with almost 70+ games left.
If 95 games will get the Yankees to the postseason, then they have to get to that number. It doesn't matter what other teams do, IF 95 is the number. Now to do that, as of three games go the Yankees needed to play .688 ball the rest of the way. A tall order, perhaps unlikely, but how many teams there are to climb over is no issue at this point.
Then they started talking about how the Yankees' first 28 games starting today are all vs. teams with under-500 records. What follows is a good illustration of why sports talk show hosts should avoid anything remotely mathematical.
Greenberg : The Yankees' next 28 games are against teams under .500. What do they have to go over this stretch . . . 24-4?"
Golic : Well even that that won't matter if Boston goes 17-7.
Greenberg : Oh well, if Boston goes 17-7 the Yankees are dead.
Um, guys? 17-7 is 24, first of all. Golic by his own admission has the brain power of a bag of slab bacon, but Greenberg went to Northwestern, which I'd always been led to believe was a good school. Secondly if the Yankees were to go 24-4 over these next 28 games, in all likelihood they will be atop the wild card standings or very close to it.
They don't need to go 24-4 over the next 28. If they win 70% of those games, that's 20-8, rounded up. Which won't be easy, but they are playing some less than stellar teams and any second half run has to start immediately.
Mike and Mike Money Moment.
Intertwined with that Yankees' conversation above was the Mikes talking about the "news item" that the Yankees "are willing to negotiate now" with A-Rod about a new contract. To me this is no news -- policies to the contrary, I believe the Yankees have been willing to talk to Boras about a new deal since last season ended. Perhaps now they have leaked Buster Olney's big scoop to make it publicly known that they are going to aggressively pursue an extension with A-Rod.
The Mikes went on to say, correctly, I think, that it will take something like $30 million per, for a fair number of years, to sign A Rod. Then Greenberg veers off the road, saying that it won't work, that A-Rod is definitely opting out and testing the market.
Err . . . Mike? What market, exactly? Given that we are talking about something like . . . $225 million over 7 years, let's say . . . how many teams actually could seriously be in the market for A Rod? I can think of four, perhaps five at the outside. San Francisco (rumored to want A Rod badly) is not an option, unless they are willing to 1) commit 35% of their total payroll to one player, or 2) dramatically increase their payroll. The Yankees, The Mets, The Angels, The Red Sox, The Cubs. Boras knows pretty much exactly what each of those teams can/will offer.
The other point, and this blind spot is not limited to Mike and Mike, but it's the most important thing in this situation: A Rod wants to stay with the Yankees! I know, gosh, how horrible to be the star of the most recognized team in sports, in one of the greatest cities in the world. And A-Rod is cognizant of his place in the history of the game . . . and he knows that, rightly or wrongly, accomplishments with the Yankees just plain mean more. A Rod's going into Cooperstown wearing a Mariners' hat? A Texas Rangers hat? I think not.
All off-season all the so-called "experts" had A Rod traded this off-season. That didn't happen, and all those experts now have him opting out. Greenberg said "I think A Rod really wants to go to Anaheim or the Cubs." This is based apparently on Greenberg's close friendship with and deep personal knowledge of A-Rod.
Not to mention that the Yankees have one advantage that other potential bidders for A-Rod don't have. And that is $81 million. $81 million that the Texas Rangers still have to pay A-Rod if he doesn't opt out of his current contract. The Yankees will extend A-Rod as opposed to ripping up the last three years of the current deal. In exchange for that I'm sure the team will go a little more money, or an extra year. As in all long-term deals with a guy in his mid-30s (A-Rod will be 35, I think, when the current deal is up), you know and have to accept that you're going to overpay in the end year(s). But that overpayment when A Rod is 42 is offset by the fact that Texas is paying a big chunk of A-Rod's salary during these hugely productive years.
I think the odds are very good that A-Rod remains a Yankee for the rest of his career.
No comments:
Post a Comment