Season Three Looms: Third Time's The Charm?

2008 will be the third season for this blog, and this time, I really (really) want to make it through the entire season. 2006, I stopped posting in May; 2007, I made it until August.

So the trend at least is promising.

We ARE Having An Actual Baseball Season, Yes?

I pose that question because it seems that all the "experts" are pretty much crowning the Red Sox as repeat champions. (Except for one baseball analyst on ESPN who predicted an Indians-Cubs World Series -- I am praying whatever he is on is legal so that I can try some.)

The "logic" of the Boston Repeat Prognosticators is basically "they're bringing everyone back." Gosh, that's brilliant analysis -- no wonder these guys make the big bucks.

Here is the official list of Boston Questions for 2008.

1. Starting pitching. It's not a given that Beckett will have another career year. Beckett is 77-52 for his career, 25 games over .500. 13 of those 25 came last year when he was 20-7. A repeat performance is by no means certain.

Everyone seems to be convinced that Dice-K will have a better year in 2008. For all the hoopla, Matsuzaka was 15-12, 4,40, on the World Champions last year. He might improve significantly this year, but while he's more familiar with the League, the League is also more familiar with him.

Clay Buckholz had better be the real deal. With Schilling most likely not a factor this season, and Wakefield being what he is, a .500 innings-eater, the Red Sox need Buckholz and Lester to be very good. They might be. But only in the fevered dreams of ESPN Sox-whores is it a given.

Theo didn't take a flyer on Bartolo Calzone (thanks, bostondirtdogs.com) as a humanitarian gesture.

2. Manny will be Manny but will he be good? Was last year just a blip, or the beginning of Manny Ramirez starting to run down? He may bounce back strongly this year, or he may be slowing down, and who knows -- perhaps even the seemingly unflappable Manny might press a bit, knowing the $20 million option is dangling out there?

3. Pedroia and Youklis. They must continue where they left off. If they don't, a sound strategy will be to simply let Ortiz and Manny hit as many solo HRs as they like. At some point AL pitchers are going to realize that Youkliis is a .280 hitter, meaning he makes an out 72% of the time he puts the ball in play, and will stop pitching to him like he's Babe Ruth on HGH.

4. Ellsbury is going to live up to the hype? He very well might . . . his first 116 at-bats were great (sans power, but he did hit .353) . . . but he's not going to be a .353 career hitter.

5. Did Papelbon's shoulder miraculously revert to a state of perfection and no one is saying? The whole motivation behind the now apparently shelved idea of making Papelbon a starter was to (supposedly) put less stress on his shoulder. Did that suddenly stop being a concern? Just wondering, especially because . . .

6. Okajima faltered badly down the stretch last year, clearly overused. He may respond to that better this year, or like many middle relievers, he may follow a good year with a crummy one.

That's the Boston Questions for 2008, going in. I don't intend to imply that the Yankees don't have a bunch of questoins, too . . . certainly they do, and Boston should be the favorite to win the division again, but it is worth remembering that a baseball season rarely goes as predicted.


Stuff I Hear Every Off-Season That Never Ends Up Being True

"Toronto is a lot better this year"
"Tampa is going to surprise some people"
"The Mets finally matter again"
"The Brewers are ready to break out"
"The Indians are taking the next step"
"The Cubs finally have all the pieces in place"

Uh huh.